The US automotive industry needs to fail to succeedNovember 20th, 2008 View Comments |
Roger Ehrenberg, Markets, Politics and Change:
Throwing $25 billion at the U.S. auto sector is akin to the $25 billion thrown at Citigroup; money flushed down the toilet. With over $100 billion of legacy pension and health care costs, a lack of globally competitive, fuel efficient cars and bloated cost structures, the U.S. auto industry as we know it has to die. Putting politics aside, it is simply foolish to pander to the UAW and their lobbyists by trying to save an industry that can’t be saved. Let’s take this opportunity through the bankruptcy process to purge unnecessary costs, sell valued assets to the private sector and re-purpose a skilled labor force towards infrastructure projects that can benefit the economy. Obama needs to make a stand that he is up for doing right, not simply thanking those who donated huge dollars and expect repayment – fast.
I can’t bear to watch or read the news about the automotive industry’s attempt to strip-mine taxpayers and the government. The automotive industry needs to fail first to succeed. Please don’t let the automotive companies, lobbyists and entrentched interests convince the government to delay the inevitable. We don’t need to flush billions of dollars into the pockets of the sycophants of a failing industry. Please.
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Random
Why do we constantly compare our current economic situation to the Great Depression?
We’ve all seen and read tons of articles and academic papers discussing our current economic situation, many with titles similar to “Worse than the Great Depression”. But we live in a massively different economic and geopolitical world than the 1930s-40s and the answers to our current problems are very different than those faced during the Great Depression.
Comparing our current economic situation to the Great Depression creates the wrong frame.
I’m not a practicing economist, so if I’m wrong, please tell me. I’d love to know why I’m wrong: I’m here to learn.
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What do I read for economic analysis? Mostly:
- Information Arbitrage: Roger Ehrenberg
- Marginal Revolution: Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok
- Paul Kedrosky
- The Big Picture: Barry Ritholtz
And, of course, a lot of other sources that might not make immediate sense to everyone…
November 21st, 2008 at 01:09
Taylor,
i share your feelings about the real state of the economy. On this anamorphosis, Alan Patrick seems to have the same POV on the advertising market.
http://broadstuff.com/archives/1386-Online-Adve....
As Brooks Jordan said in your Frienfeed Bubblegeneration Room, “top of the list is to see some real opportunities in all of this deflation. You'd think barriers to entry are lower and thinner now than they've been for a very long time. More heartening than SAI and Dr. Doom
November 21st, 2008 at 01:09
Taylor,
i share your feelings about the real state of the economy. On this anamorphosis, Alan Patrick seems to have the same POV on the advertising market.
http://broadstuff.com/archives/1386-Online-Adve....
As Brooks Jordan said in your Frienfeed Bubblegeneration Room, “top of the list is to see some real opportunities in all of this deflation. You'd think barriers to entry are lower and thinner now than they've been for a very long time. More heartening than SAI and Dr. Doom
November 21st, 2008 at 01:09
Taylor,
i share your feelings about the real state of the economy. On this anamorphosis, Alan Patrick seems to have the same POV on the advertising market.
http://broadstuff.com/archives/1386-Online-Adve....
As Brooks Jordan said in your Frienfeed Bubblegeneration Room, “top of the list is to see some real opportunities in all of this deflation. You'd think barriers to entry are lower and thinner now than they've been for a very long time. More heartening than SAI and Dr. Doom
November 21st, 2008 at 01:09
Taylor,
i share your feelings about the real state of the economy. On this anamorphosis, Alan Patrick seems to have the same POV on the advertising market.
http://broadstuff.com/archives/1386-Online-Adve....
As Brooks Jordan said in your Frienfeed Bubblegeneration Room, “top of the list is to see some real opportunities in all of this deflation. You'd think barriers to entry are lower and thinner now than they've been for a very long time. More heartening than SAI and Dr. Doom
November 21st, 2008 at 01:09
Taylor,
i share your feelings about the real state of the economy. On this anamorphosis, Alan Patrick seems to have the same POV on the advertising market.
http://broadstuff.com/archives/1386-Online-Adve....
As Brooks Jordan said in your Frienfeed Bubblegeneration Room, “top of the list is to see some real opportunities in all of this deflation. You'd think barriers to entry are lower and thinner now than they've been for a very long time. More heartening than SAI and Dr. Doom
November 21st, 2008 at 12:56
Ethan Bauley has turned me onto Patrick, and I saw the same chart. My takeaway is that we need a discontinuous change in how to advertise on the Internet to break through the plateau. More pages, more attention is not the answer.
Which is similar to how I feel about the automotive industry, although the degree of “discontinuous change” is far larger in auto than online advertising, hugely different industry histories, economic and market structures.
Brooks' point is great… and I'm still sorting through how to take advantage of deflation. Perhaps a future post
November 21st, 2008 at 12:56
Ethan Bauley has turned me onto Patrick, and I saw the same chart. My takeaway is that we need a discontinuous change in how to advertise on the Internet to break through the plateau. More pages, more attention is not the answer.
Which is similar to how I feel about the automotive industry, although the degree of “discontinuous change” is far larger in auto than online advertising, hugely different industry histories, economic and market structures.
Brooks' point is great… and I'm still sorting through how to take advantage of deflation. Perhaps a future post
November 21st, 2008 at 12:56
Ethan Bauley has turned me onto Patrick, and I saw the same chart. My takeaway is that we need a discontinuous change in how to advertise on the Internet to break through the plateau. More pages, more attention is not the answer.
Which is similar to how I feel about the automotive industry, although the degree of “discontinuous change” is far larger in auto than online advertising, hugely different industry histories, economic and market structures.
Brooks' point is great… and I'm still sorting through how to take advantage of deflation. Perhaps a future post
November 21st, 2008 at 12:56
Ethan Bauley has turned me onto Patrick, and I saw the same chart. My takeaway is that we need a discontinuous change in how to advertise on the Internet to break through the plateau. More pages, more attention is not the answer.
Which is similar to how I feel about the automotive industry, although the degree of “discontinuous change” is far larger in auto than online advertising, hugely different industry histories, economic and market structures.
Brooks' point is great… and I'm still sorting through how to take advantage of deflation. Perhaps a future post
November 21st, 2008 at 12:56
Ethan Bauley has turned me onto Patrick, and I saw the same chart. My takeaway is that we need a discontinuous change in how to advertise on the Internet to break through the plateau. More pages, more attention is not the answer.
Which is similar to how I feel about the automotive industry, although the degree of “discontinuous change” is far larger in auto than online advertising, hugely different industry histories, economic and market structures.
Brooks' point is great… and I'm still sorting through how to take advantage of deflation. Perhaps a future post
November 22nd, 2008 at 07:39
One reason for the comparison to the Great Depression — whether folk consciously or “un” — know it is this: Cyclically, we are at the same point in the generational cycle where we were at the onset of the Great Depression. So, while most pundits talk of this subject by pointing to numbers and data, the deeper underlying point is that the constellation of which generational archetypes are at which point in their life cycles matches that era. And one of the known and predictable components of generational theory is that when this particular set up of generations (Boomers entering elderhood, GenX entering midlife, Millennials entering young adulthood, and the new gen being born) occur, there is *always* a crisis. But it's not just “a crisis,” it's a Crisis Era, about 15-20 years in length … and ending when Millennials start moving into midlife and GenX, into elderhood. et cetera
The Fourth Turning, by Strauss and Howe, is the best written source for the data and history to understand the cycle. A very timely book for now. And written a decade earlier, predicting “The Great Devaluation” around 2005-2008. Who woulda thunk it?
November 22nd, 2008 at 07:39
One reason for the comparison to the Great Depression — whether folk consciously or “un” — know it is this: Cyclically, we are at the same point in the generational cycle where we were at the onset of the Great Depression. So, while most pundits talk of this subject by pointing to numbers and data, the deeper underlying point is that the constellation of which generational archetypes are at which point in their life cycles matches that era. And one of the known and predictable components of generational theory is that when this particular set up of generations (Boomers entering elderhood, GenX entering midlife, Millennials entering young adulthood, and the new gen being born) occur, there is *always* a crisis. But it's not just “a crisis,” it's a Crisis Era, about 15-20 years in length … and ending when Millennials start moving into midlife and GenX, into elderhood. et cetera
The Fourth Turning, by Strauss and Howe, is the best written source for the data and history to understand the cycle. A very timely book for now. And written a decade earlier, predicting “The Great Devaluation” around 2005-2008. Who woulda thunk it?
November 22nd, 2008 at 07:39
One reason for the comparison to the Great Depression — whether folk consciously or “un” — know it is this: Cyclically, we are at the same point in the generational cycle where we were at the onset of the Great Depression. So, while most pundits talk of this subject by pointing to numbers and data, the deeper underlying point is that the constellation of which generational archetypes are at which point in their life cycles matches that era. And one of the known and predictable components of generational theory is that when this particular set up of generations (Boomers entering elderhood, GenX entering midlife, Millennials entering young adulthood, and the new gen being born) occur, there is *always* a crisis. But it's not just “a crisis,” it's a Crisis Era, about 15-20 years in length … and ending when Millennials start moving into midlife and GenX, into elderhood. et cetera
The Fourth Turning, by Strauss and Howe, is the best written source for the data and history to understand the cycle. A very timely book for now. And written a decade earlier, predicting “The Great Devaluation” around 2005-2008. Who woulda thunk it?
November 22nd, 2008 at 07:39
One reason for the comparison to the Great Depression — whether folk consciously or “un” — know it is this: Cyclically, we are at the same point in the generational cycle where we were at the onset of the Great Depression. So, while most pundits talk of this subject by pointing to numbers and data, the deeper underlying point is that the constellation of which generational archetypes are at which point in their life cycles matches that era. And one of the known and predictable components of generational theory is that when this particular set up of generations (Boomers entering elderhood, GenX entering midlife, Millennials entering young adulthood, and the new gen being born) occur, there is *always* a crisis. But it's not just “a crisis,” it's a Crisis Era, about 15-20 years in length … and ending when Millennials start moving into midlife and GenX, into elderhood. et cetera
The Fourth Turning, by Strauss and Howe, is the best written source for the data and history to understand the cycle. A very timely book for now. And written a decade earlier, predicting “The Great Devaluation” around 2005-2008. Who woulda thunk it?
November 22nd, 2008 at 07:39
One reason for the comparison to the Great Depression — whether folk consciously or “un” — know it is this: Cyclically, we are at the same point in the generational cycle where we were at the onset of the Great Depression. So, while most pundits talk of this subject by pointing to numbers and data, the deeper underlying point is that the constellation of which generational archetypes are at which point in their life cycles matches that era. And one of the known and predictable components of generational theory is that when this particular set up of generations (Boomers entering elderhood, GenX entering midlife, Millennials entering young adulthood, and the new gen being born) occur, there is *always* a crisis. But it's not just “a crisis,” it's a Crisis Era, about 15-20 years in length … and ending when Millennials start moving into midlife and GenX, into elderhood. et cetera
The Fourth Turning, by Strauss and Howe, is the best written source for the data and history to understand the cycle. A very timely book for now. And written a decade earlier, predicting “The Great Devaluation” around 2005-2008. Who woulda thunk it?
November 22nd, 2008 at 14:53
I've never encountered that perspective.
What do you mean there is “always a crisis”? Is a crisis period always predicted and observed at a particular overlap of generations throughout time? Or is the prediction isolated to this particular overlap of Boomer, Gen X and Gen Y because of their particular life stages and relative population sizes?
On a different note, I remember reading books years ago predicting a crash in financials once Boomers stopped actively investing into the market and shifted towards maintaining their net worth simply because of the size of the generations and its impact on the equity market's capital flow.
I can't really propose that our current economic conditions were created by that shift, but perhaps I should have listened…
As a Gen X, I'm looking forward to 15-20 years of crisis until I reach elderhood
November 22nd, 2008 at 14:53
I have not encountered that perspective.
What do you mean there is “always a crisis”? Is a crisis period always predicted and observed at a particular overlap of generations throughout time? Or is the prediction isolated to this particular overlap of Boomer, Gen X and Gen Y because of their particular life stages and relative population sizes?
On a different note, I remember reading books years ago predicting a crash in financials once Boomers stopped actively investing into the market and shifted towards maintaining their net worth simply because of the size of the generations and its impact on the equity market's capital flow.
I can't really propose that our current economic conditions were created by that shift, but perhaps I should have listened…
As a Gen X, I'm looking forward to 15-20 years of crisis until I reach elderhood
November 22nd, 2008 at 14:53
I have not encountered that perspective.
What do you mean there is “always a crisis”? Is a crisis period always predicted and observed at a particular overlap of generations throughout time? Or is the prediction isolated to this particular overlap of Boomer, Gen X and Gen Y because of their particular life stages and relative population sizes?
On a different note, I remember reading books years ago predicting a crash in financials once Boomers stopped actively investing into the market and shifted towards maintaining their net worth simply because of the size of the generations and its impact on the equity market's capital flow.
I can't really propose that our current economic conditions were created by that shift, but perhaps I should have listened…
As a Gen X, I'm looking forward to 15-20 years of crisis until I reach elderhood
November 22nd, 2008 at 14:53
I have not encountered that perspective.
What do you mean there is “always a crisis”? Is a crisis period always predicted and observed at a particular overlap of generations throughout time? Or is the prediction isolated to this particular overlap of Boomer, Gen X and Gen Y because of their particular life stages and relative population sizes?
On a different note, I remember reading books years ago predicting a crash in financials once Boomers stopped actively investing into the market and shifted towards maintaining their net worth simply because of the size of the generations and its impact on the equity market's capital flow.
I can't really propose that our current economic conditions were created by that shift, but perhaps I should have listened…
As a Gen X, I'm looking forward to 15-20 years of crisis until I reach elderhood
November 22nd, 2008 at 14:53
I have not encountered that perspective.
What do you mean there is “always a crisis”? Is a crisis period always predicted and observed at a particular overlap of generations throughout time? Or is the prediction isolated to this particular overlap of Boomer, Gen X and Gen Y because of their particular life stages and relative population sizes?
On a different note, I remember reading books years ago predicting a crash in financials once Boomers stopped actively investing into the market and shifted towards maintaining their net worth simply because of the size of the generations and its impact on the equity market's capital flow.
I can't really propose that our current economic conditions were created by that shift, but perhaps I should have listened…
As a Gen X, I'm looking forward to 15-20 years of crisis until I reach elderhood
February 2nd, 2009 at 14:24
You are correct. The fundamental financial structure of our economy is vastly different than it was during the Depression and it is global in perspective. Comparing our situation now is like comparing moral values 2,000 years ago to those of today. They are apples and oranges. Clearly, we are navigating in unprecedented waters now, but that does not mean we are worse off (at least not yet) than we were in the 1930's.
February 2nd, 2009 at 14:24
You are correct. The fundamental financial structure of our economy is vastly different than it was during the Depression and it is global in perspective. Comparing our situation now is like comparing moral values 2,000 years ago to those of today. They are apples and oranges. Clearly, we are navigating in unprecedented waters now, but that does not mean we are worse off (at least not yet) than we were in the 1930's.
February 2nd, 2009 at 14:24
You are correct. The fundamental financial structure of our economy is vastly different than it was during the Depression and it is global in perspective. Comparing our situation now is like comparing moral values 2,000 years ago to those of today. They are apples and oranges. Clearly, we are navigating in unprecedented waters now, but that does not mean we are worse off (at least not yet) than we were in the 1930's.
February 2nd, 2009 at 14:24
You are correct. The fundamental financial structure of our economy is vastly different than it was during the Depression and it is global in perspective. Comparing our situation now is like comparing moral values 2,000 years ago to those of today. They are apples and oranges. Clearly, we are navigating in unprecedented waters now, but that does not mean we are worse off (at least not yet) than we were in the 1930's.
February 2nd, 2009 at 14:24
You are correct. The fundamental financial structure of our economy is vastly different than it was during the Depression and it is global in perspective. Comparing our situation now is like comparing moral values 2,000 years ago to those of today. They are apples and oranges. Clearly, we are navigating in unprecedented waters now, but that does not mean we are worse off (at least not yet) than we were in the 1930's.
February 2nd, 2009 at 21:14
A slightly different question: are there any historical reference points that would be a good base for comparison?
February 2nd, 2009 at 21:14
A slightly different question: are there any historical reference points that would be a good base for comparison?
February 2nd, 2009 at 21:14
A slightly different question: are there any historical reference points that would be a good base for comparison?
February 2nd, 2009 at 21:14
A slightly different question: are there any historical reference points that would be a good base for comparison?
February 2nd, 2009 at 21:14
A slightly different question: are there any historical reference points that would be a good base for comparison?
February 4th, 2009 at 13:28
During the late 1800's and early 1900's there are many instances of banks running out of money and a financial crisis taking place. Many times the government stepped in, particularly when the US solicited financial expertise from financier JP Morgan. However, I think that given the complexity of our system today and the global scale with in which it operates, it is hard to use any one reference point to compare them. Rather, I think our current state will be used as a reference for future generations.
February 4th, 2009 at 13:28
During the late 1800's and early 1900's there are many instances of banks running out of money and a financial crisis taking place. Many times the government stepped in, particularly when the US solicited financial expertise from financier JP Morgan. However, I think that given the complexity of our system today and the global scale with in which it operates, it is hard to use any one reference point to compare them. Rather, I think our current state will be used as a reference for future generations.
February 4th, 2009 at 13:28
During the late 1800's and early 1900's there are many instances of banks running out of money and a financial crisis taking place. Many times the government stepped in, particularly when the US solicited financial expertise from financier JP Morgan. However, I think that given the complexity of our system today and the global scale with in which it operates, it is hard to use any one reference point to compare them. Rather, I think our current state will be used as a reference for future generations.
February 4th, 2009 at 13:28
During the late 1800's and early 1900's there are many instances of banks running out of money and a financial crisis taking place. Many times the government stepped in, particularly when the US solicited financial expertise from financier JP Morgan. However, I think that given the complexity of our system today and the global scale with in which it operates, it is hard to use any one reference point to compare them. Rather, I think our current state will be used as a reference for future generations.
February 4th, 2009 at 13:28
During the late 1800's and early 1900's there are many instances of banks running out of money and a financial crisis taking place. Many times the government stepped in, particularly when the US solicited financial expertise from financier JP Morgan. However, I think that given the complexity of our system today and the global scale with in which it operates, it is hard to use any one reference point to compare them. Rather, I think our current state will be used as a reference for future generations.
October 12th, 2009 at 11:04
Maybe car companies should try to redirect their market to cars that don't run with oil because oil is not something that will last for much longer. I mean, all transportation in the world is dependent on oil from plane to boat:)) What will happen when oil disappears for good?
_____________________________________________
Donate a Car to Charity
October 12th, 2009 at 18:04
Maybe car companies should try to redirect their market to cars that don’t run with oil because oil is not something that will last for much longer. I mean, all transportation in the world is dependent on oil from plane to boat:)) What will happen when oil disappears for good? rn_____________________________________________rnDonate a Car to Charity