The recession will not have a lasting impact on the way people shop; the current “post-consumer era” is a phenomenon; we are living through a temporary forced respite rather than a permanent desired change in the nature of consumption.

The recent sharp decline in retail consumer sales is a signal of a change in behavior, not a change in fundamental human nature. Human nature simply doesn’t change as fast as behavior.

The idea of the “post-consumer” era is a fad.

Not everyone agrees.

The Economist, From buy, buy to bye-bye:

Asked whether they want more stuff, consumers in rich countries have responded with an emphatic “No”. The breathtaking speed with which retail sales have plummeted in both America and Europe (see chart) has caught retailers and manufacturers by surprise. In response, companies have tried desperately to prop up revenues using a variety of promotions, advertising and other marketing ploys, often to no avail.

But as they battle with these immediate problems, marketers are also pondering what longer-term changes in consumer behaviour have been triggered by the recession.

Read the rest of the article for the details, but the primary changes highlighted are a “trend to thrift”, an “anti-business” sentiment, a decline in acceptance to paying a green premium and accelerated use of social media by consumers for researching companies and products.

I don’t buy it.

“Anti-business” does not mean anti-consumption.

A “move from passion to compassion in marketing” will not lead to reduced spending; it’s just a shift from one expensive outlet of personal expression and fulfillment to another.

If I was a marketer placing bets on how consumer behavior will change…

• Bad bet: People will return to buying the same expensive items that were popular before the recession.
• Good bet: People will continue to buy expensive goods and services to improve their lives and promote themselves.

As I noted to Nicolas Gabard,

A shift towards “community” and “relationships” doesn’t lead to reduced focus on consumption, it merely shifts the destination of dollars, attention and competition.

I think our level of consumption and focus on good will remain the same; what will change is a break from buying mass-produced corporate goods to buying goods produced by individuals, tied to causes, etc. But frugality, thriftiness and “aspirational luxury shopping” will return as soon as people feel more secure and as soon as “downsizing” and thriftiness is no longer in style.

While the nature of what we do and buy to establish status may change, “conspicuous consumption” is an ingrained need. Yesterday we bought expensive gas-guzzling SUVs to “keep up with the Joneses”, tomorrow it will be expensive, gas-efficient cars using electricity or alternative fuels.

The quest to establish and promote one’s status is fundamental human nature; while our methods for creating and displaying status may have changed, the need has not disappeared. Why can’t paying the “green premium” be the new badge of conspicuous consumption? (if it isn’t already..)

Lastly, social media will definitely have an impact on how consumers buy and how marketers promote and sell (example: Direct Marketing is Dead), it might change what we buy (I’m hopeful it does), but it will not drastically change why or how much we buy.

Most observers have been surprised by the sudden decline in retail spending, consumer confidence and retreat from conspicuous consumption; why do we expect to be able to predict the future now?

Thoughts?

—

Related:

• Jonathan Birchall, FT.com, ‘New’ US shopper to emerge from crisis
• David Armano, Marketing in a Post-Consumer Era