Yes, a “black swan” is an intellectual construct as overused as a “tipping point” and a “long tail”, but they each remain valuable bits of language to express and transmit dense theories and bodies of thought; but using the idea of a “black swan” helps us frame an important question: are our current structures in academia and scientific research suppressing the incentives to pursue revolutionary ideas?
Honestly, I don’t think so; I think the ability for revolutionary ideas to accrue massive gains (public and private) are becoming even larger due to the power laws of the interactions facilitated by the Internet. But I’m open to thoughts.
Mark Buchanan at PhysicsWorld.com, In search of the black swans:
The publish-or-perish ethic too often favours a narrow and conservative approach to scientific innovation. Mark Buchanan asks whether we are pushing revolutionary ideas to the margins.
… The price to pay for not moving to re-establish such independence will lie in a failure to realize the huge and unpredictable discoveries that move science forward most in the long term — discoveries made possible only when individuals leap out of what is comfortable and accepted, and wander out into spaces unknown. It is the true enormity of the potential gains that makes this goal of reaching the “efficient frontier” so important.
If today we seem to have a dearth of new Einsteins, Smolin suggests, this may just reflect that we have become a little too risk averse. New Einsteins, he points out, will not be working in areas that have been well established for decades. … New Einsteins may be slipping out of view and out of science altogether just because our scientific culture currently simply has no way of encouraging them.
To beat an idea to death, it all comes down to incentives:
Creating tactics without building a strategy is the same as building a boat without a blueprint; creating a strategy without understanding the underlying incentives of the players is the same as creating a blueprint without thinking about the basic physics behind how boats work; in short, not a good idea.
What happens if lose sight of incentive structures?
- Compensation tied to short-term time horizons leads to decisions to maximise short-term return (until we figure out how to tie compensation to value creation present and future);
- “Win and I win, lose and you lose” structures redistribute private risks to the public;
- “Attempts at local maximization create global minimization.”
Need I even explain how we’re seeing this today?
How do we start re-framing incentives?
With conscious attention to our lives, thoughts, actions and attention, today and tomorrow; by capturing richer data about the full impact of our lives and the externalities we impose on our worlds; by structuring data about our lives to change our behavior.
You’ve probably already read and listened to these, but check out…
- Umair Haque on behavioral innovation at BRITE ’09 Conference (video)
- Umair Haque on Constructive Capitalism
- Umair Haque, Why Ideals are the New Business Models